Wednesday 28 March 2012

VXSpotlight - Investopedia.com

Its Wednesday and the best things always come in 3s, right?
Today on Velomaxx Spotlight (VXS), we introduce you to Investopedia.com

 
Investopedia is the web's largest investment resource and it touches on everything investment from stock markets all the way to forex. 

Investopedia has its own Forex part which is thorough and definitely something we would recommend for anyone who has an interest in forex trading. 

On it you can find:
1) Live Rates that can be adjusted to by the Hour, 4 Hours, Daily and Weekly

2) Up-to-date updates on the market changes

3) Tutorials as well FAQs to answer your questions about the industry

and (my personal favorite) "Forex Term of the Day". 


So check out Investopedia by going to their website at http://www.investopedia.com/ and get a head-start and benefit from your trading.  Have a great day everybody!

*Velomaxx Spotlight (VXS) is a new function that we want to introduce by equipping our networks with up-to-date and reliable resources to be better traders. If you have come across a reliable website, book or magazine, send us a message and it might be featured on VXS. Thank you and have a great week. 

CAD, AUD & NZD Falls as USD Holds Gain (Bloomberg, March 28th 2012) )

March 28th 2012, Chris Fournier, Austen Sherman, Masaki Kondo, Kristine Aquino & Mariko Ishikawa, Bloomberg.com

G'day everyone,
Today the CAD saw a decline against most of its major peers as investors exited to seek a more secure site (Fournier & Sherman, 2012). The currency rose tremendously during week but quickly fell  as equities and commodities fluctuate (Fournier & Sherman, 2012). The past few weeks we saw an increase in the US consumers and that has prompted fall of the CAD.

It weakened 0.4% against the USD to 99.48 cents (Fournier & Sherman, 2012).

On the other side of the world, the AUD & NZD also witnessed declines as there is a drop in Asian stocks (Kondo, 2012). Since China is an important trading partner for both Australia & New Zealand, both currencies are headed to a drop as China reports a gauge for the nation's manufacturing on April 1 and slow growth in earnings for China's industrial companies (Kondo, 2012). Both currencies fell by 0.1% against the Dollar.

To read the full articles, go here:
1) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-27/canadian-dollar-declines-versus-u-s-peer-as-oil-stocks-waver.html
2) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-27/australian-n-z-dollars-hold-declines-on-global-stock-drops.html
3) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-27/dollar-holds-gain-versus-yen-before-durable-goods-report.html

Spain May Yet Re-Ignite Euro-Zone Crisis (Mario Singh, March 27th 2012)


This week, Eurozone finance ministers will gather in Copenhagen for talks. The main agenda will centre upon strengthening of the region’s financial firewall.
The goal is to establish a massive bailout fund that could combine the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the system designed to replace it, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).
The EFSF, which is due to expire next year, has a current total of 440 billion Euros.
It has since disbursed 192 billion Euros in three separate bailouts to Greece, Ireland and Portugal.
Under the current rules, the unused funds would be passed on to the ESM. The ESM itself would have a fresh war-chest of 500 billion Euros available for future use.
This would bring the entire bailout fund to about 750 billion Euros.
Besides increasing the size of the firewall to shield contagion, the European Commission is hopeful that the larger fund itself will encourage countries like China and the US to put up more money for the IMF.
Olli Rehn, the European Union economic affairs commissioner, said there was “no room for complacency” and urged the Eurozone “to conclude the comprehensive crisis response by reinforcing the euro area financial firewall”.
There is one country which could derail the plans of the Eurozone finance ministers – Spain.
Ahead of the meetings, Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti warned that Spain could reignite the European debt crisis, saying that Spain “hasn’t paid enough attention to its public accounts.”
As it is, Spain’s 10-year bond yields have been steadily climbing for the last three weeks, coming in at 5.39% last week.
Things are also not looking good for Spain Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who is struggling to reduce the country’s budget deficit in the face of a looming recession. Come 29th March, he would be facing his first general strike, as unions protest against changes to employment laws.

Top News This Week

Canada GDP m/m.Friday, 30th March, 8.30pm. I expect figures to come in at0.2% (previous figure was 0.4%).

Trade Call

Short CAD/JPY at 82.64
On the H1 chart, CAD/JPY has been on a steady downtrend – falling from a high of 84.96 to a low of 81.85 – a move of over 300 pips in just one week.
Current price movement is in a range, with Resistance located at 83.00 and Support located at 81.85. The bias is for us to go short.
We will go short once prices fall to 82.64. A protective stop of 40 pips is placed above the entry price, which is located a few pips above the Resistance level of 83.00.
We will have 2 targets on this trade. First profit is taken at 82.24 and the final position is exited at 81.84.
Entry Price = 82.64
Stop Loss = 83.04
1st Profit = 82.24
2nd Profit = 81.84
(Source: MarioSingh.com)

Friday 23 March 2012

Yen Continues to Rise (Bloomberg, March 23rd 2012)

March 23rd 2012, Mariko Ishikawa, Candice Zachariahs, Kristine Aquino, Bloomberg.com

Today the Yen was set to rise against 16 of its major peers despite the concern of decline in the Chinese economy (Ishikawa & Zachariahs, 2012).

The Yen traded at 82.54 against the Dollar and has advanced 1.1% this week and yesterday touched 82.33, the highest since March 13th (Ishikawa & Zachariahs, 2012).

In other currency news, the Aussie Dollar fell this week at 1.8% the largest since the five-day period in December. The reason for this is the strong trading partnership Australia has with China, whose manufacturing may contract for a fifth month (Aquino, 2012).

To read the full articles, go here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-23/yen-set-for-weekly-gains-as-stocks-fall-on-china-concern.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-22/yen-gains-versus-euro-dollar-as-euro-area-industry-declines.html

Thursday 22 March 2012

Yen Rises Against Dollar (Bloomberg March 22nd 2012)

March 22nd 2012, Mariko Ishikawa, Candice Zachariahs & Austen Sherman, Bloomberg.com

Hi everyone,
Although the Dollar still remains strong, today we experience the Yen gaining against the Dollar as this morning the Yen rose 0.2% against the Dollar (83.25 per dollar) (Ishikawa, 2012).

That same gain of 0.2% also rose the Yen against the Euro, now becoming 110.00 per Euro (Ishikawa, 2012).

In other news, the CAD gained against the Aussie Dollar as the AUD fell 0.4% to CAD1.0355 (Sherman, 2012).

 We would like to know what you guys think about the strengthening of the USD. Do you think it will go on to rise and be the top again as experts say, or do you think its just a passing trend? Let us know.

Have a great day everyone.

To read the full articles, go here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-22/yen-gains-after-japan-posts-unexpected-trade-surplus.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-21/canada-dollar-gains-momentum-against-aussie-technical-analysis.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-21/yen-gains-versus-dollar-euro-after-japan-trade-balance-data.html

Tuesday 20 March 2012

More Buying Into US Recovery (Mario Singh, March 20th 2012)


With the Greek story out of the way, all eyes are now focused on the recovery of the US economy.
Over the last couple of months, the US has reported consistent improvements in key economic reports such as non-farm payrolls and retail sales.
For the month of February, US employers added 227,000 jobs while retail sales rose by 1.1%. The jobless rate also remained at a healthy three-year low.
These stellar numbers have damped expectations for more QE from the Federal Reserve – a stimulus that might otherwise debase the greenback.
According to the median forecast of 91 economists in a Bloomberg News survey, US GDP is expected to rise 2.2% this year, while other developed nations are slated to increase by only 1.2%.
Even the Futures Market seems to agree on the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback. According to date from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), bets for a stronger dollar against other major currencies have outnumbered the bears for 26 consecutive weeks.
Not since 1999 have currency traders been bullish on the dollar for so long, a sign that the market sees the US resuming its role as the engine of global economic growth.
Here’s 3 additional data which points to a stronger dollar in the coming months:
1. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major US trade partners, is up 1.5% in the past six months; compared with the Yen’s 9.3% drop and the Euro’s 2.4% drop.
2. According to the US Treasury on 15th March 2012, net buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds rose to USD101 billion in January from USD19.2 billion in December. Even China, the largest foreign US creditor, increased its holding of US government securities in January for the first time in six months.
3. US bonds are giving higher yields than German bunds – current 2 year Treasuries yield 0.36%, which is 3 basis points more than the triple-rated German bunds. Just six months ago, German bunds were yielding 34 basis points more than their US counterparts.

Top News This Week

1. GBP CPI y/y. Tuesday, 20th March, 5.30pm. I expect figures to come in at 3.4% (previous figure was 3.6%).
2. GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing. Wednesday, 21st March, 5.30pm. I expect figures to come in above 5B (previous figure was -10.7B).

Trade Call

Long USD/JPY at 83.25
Last week, Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa indicated that the central bank will keep using monetary policy as a tool to tackle deflation. This caused the Yen to decline 1.8% in the past week, the worst performer among the 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes.
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has been on a steady uptrend, clearing over 350 pips in 2 weeks. Price action looks to be respecting the uptrend line, hence, the bias is for us to go long.
Current price is in a 100-pip range, with Resistance spotted at 84.16, and Support located at 83.16. We will go long once prices bounce off the Support level. Entry is taken 10 pips above the Support level, at 83.25. A stop loss of 55 pips is placed below the Support level.
We will have 2 targets on this trade, exiting the final position at 84.35.
Entry Price = 83.25
Stop Loss = 82.70
1st Profit = 83.80
2nd Profit = 84.35
(Source: MarioSingh.com)

Dollar Near a One-Week Low... Can It Still Stay At The Top? (Blooomberg.com March 20th 2012)

How's everyone today?

Now an interesting even happened today as the Dollar closes on a near one-week low where it fell by 0.2% against 15 or 16 of its major peers as US stocks boosted demand for higher-yielding assets (Zachariahs, 2012).

However according to Catarina Saraiva: (its) not since 1999 have currency traders been bullish on the dollar for so long (2012). She also states that this may be a sign that the US Dollar might resume its role as the 'engine of global economic growth' (Saraiva, 2012).

Saraiva also states that although most of the growth gain the Dollar Index since 2009 (2.4%) come from investors seeking refuge by buying US assets from the European economic turmoil and overall GFC (2012). Also as we have seen in the recent weeks, this is evident as retails sales and jobs have been increasing in the US.

In other news, the CAD rose by 0.5% against the USD (Fournier, 2012) and so has the New Zealand & Australian Dollar against the Yen as we have seen a decrease in the JPY yesterday (Aquino, 2012).

We hope this has been useful to you and remember to trade wisely! It is not to predict but to react to the situation!

Have a great day everybody!

All articles: March 20th 2012, Candice Zachariahs, Catarina Saraiva, Chris Fournier, & Kristine Aquino, Bloomberg.com.

To read the full articles, go here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-19/dollar-near-one-week-low-versus-euro-before-fed-bernanke.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-19/dollar-bulls-beat-bears-in-futures-for-longest-since-1999.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-19/canadian-dollar-fluctuates-amid-decline-in-u-s-stock.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-19/kiwi-to-rise-to-69-63-yen-on-elliott-technical-analysis.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-19/aussie-near-10-month-high-versus-yen-before-rba-minutes.html

Monday 19 March 2012

Euro Rises Versus Yen (Bloomberg, March 19th 2012)

Hey everyone,
Hope you had a great weekend.

Today the Yen remains low against the Euro as the Euro reached a 4.5 month high as European officials discuss new strategies to strengthen the region's economy (Ishikawa, 2012).

To read the full article by Mariko Ishikawa from Bloomberg.com, go here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-18/euro-rises.html


Friday 16 March 2012

Yen Rebounds Against the Dollar (Bloomberg.com, March 16th 2012))

March 16th 2012, Allison Bennet, Lucy Meakin, & Mariko Ishikawa, Bloomberg.com

The Yen rebounded against the US Dollar today as investors speculated its latest three-day fall (Monday to Thursday) since November might have happened a little to prematurely (Bennet & Meakin, 2012). 

The Yen rose 0.2% to 83.57 to the dollar and ended its four-month decline yesterday. Unfortunately gainst the Euro, it fell 0.2% to 109.32. 

The pound also weakened against the Euro the past three days and so did the NZD as the nation's manufacturing expanded since 2010 (Bennet & Meakin, 2012). 

In other reports, the AUD rose against the USD. However currency strategists at the Bank of New Zealand states that all these rises and strength in the New Zealand economy data will mean that the Aussie-Kiwi is continue to shift lower. The reason he says is because investors will look to play the stronger New Zealand economic view through the Aussie-kiwi cross, rather than against the U.S. dollar" (Bennet & Ishikawa, 2012). 

To view the full articles, go to: 

Wednesday 14 March 2012

The Velomaxx Community FaceBook Timeline Launch!

Hey everyone!
We just want to update you on the launch of the new Velomaxx Facebook page:
The Velomaxx Community. 

Here you can be updated on the updates on the forex market and articles from Mario Singh himself all on your FaceBook News Feed! 

The Velomaxx Community, 'Like' us and be part of the Community to be the better trader! 

USD & CAD Flying High (Bloomberg.com, March 14. 2012)

March 14th 2012, Monami Yui & Chris Fournier, Bloomberg.com

Today the USD nears a 4-week high and the highest it has ever achieved in 11-months against the Yen! According to the Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist of Westpac Bank, Sydney, he says we should be seeing signs of recovery in the US economy where treasury yields are moving higher and the dollar being more supported (cited in Yui, 2012).

Slightly up north, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) also saw some strengthening against most of its peers as growth in the US economy raised optimism (Fournier, 2012).

The CAD rose 0.4% to 98.86 cents per US Dollar. Currently is 1CAD buys $1.0115 (Fournier, 2012).

To read the full article, go here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-13/dollar-near-4-week-high-as-fed-raises-economic-assessment.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-13/canada-dollar-climbs-against-most-major-peers-on-u-s-growth-optimism.html

Video #3 Interview with a Millionaire Trader by Mario Singh

Part 1

Part 2
(Source: MarioSingh.com)

He Engineers a Career in Forex Trading (Joyce Teo, The Straits Times Sunday, 11 March 2012)


The Straits Times – Sunday, 11 March 2012. Editor: Joyce Teo

FX1 Academy chief ventured into a completely different field and struck gold after learning from the best
Some people think they can make $50,000 a month or 10 times their money within a few months when they do forex trading, or trading in currencies.

But it is like gambling, and if the exchange rates do not go their way, they can easily lose all of their money, said forex trader Mario Sant Singh, 35, the chief executive of FX1 Academy, which teaches investors to trade based on fundamental and technical analysis.

‘It depends on the capital you start with,’ he said. ‘If you start with $10,000, then a return of 5 per cent a month will yield only $500. If you start with $1 million, the same 5 per cent will give you $50,000 a month.’

He added that it is not difficult to make a return of 50 per cent to 100 per cent a year, but few make this amount because they are not disciplined when it comes to cutting losses. Trading is very much about the way you manage your impulses and how disciplined you are, he said.

‘Not many people are disciplined. What they should do is just set a stop-loss limit. You literally key it into the platform,’ he added. ‘This will allow the market to take you out so you don’t have to wrestle with the notion of hanging on to a losing trade.’

Mr Singh, who writes a weekly forex column in my paper, has appeared many times on CNBC to give his views on the currency market and global finance.

He graduated with a third-class honours degree in chemical engineering from the National University of Singapore in 2000 but did not bother to pursue a career in the field after he applied for a job at Shell but did not hear from the company.

Instead, he joined a network marketing firm selling health products and conducted training sessions as its head coach in South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore.

‘I was trained to think like an entrepreneur. What I learnt was that any mentor can guide you on knowledge and action but no one can help you with desire. You have to want it. You can do anything as long as you want to do it,’ he said.

He started cleaning company Spick n’ Span International in 2004 and sold it for $150,000 in 2007 before starting FX1 Academy.

Mr Singh is married to housewife Shalyn, 43. Their daughter Chantelle is 21/2 years old and their son Elliot is four months old.

Q: Are you a spender or saver?
Both. My wife and I do not spend much on ourselves, but we do spend on the children. We tithe 10 per cent of our income to City Harvest Church, save 20 per cent, invest 20 per cent and spend the rest on household expenses and the children.

Q: How much do you charge to your credit cards every month?
I’ve never been a big fan of credit cards because my mum taught me not to rely on them.
I prefer debit cards, but now that I am travelling more for business, I am starting to use credit cards more often. I charge about $5,000 to the cards every month, mostly for flights and hotel stays, and accumulate points to redeem rewards.

The bills are always paid on time. I also withdraw about $500 to $700 a week for my daily expenses.

Q: What financial planning have you done for yourself?
I have life and term policies with a total coverage of $1 million. My critical illness and accident cover cost $500,000 each. My family is covered in these areas.

Apart from my business, I have my forex trading accounts and I also keep some cash. My business is almost on autopilot, which is why I can focus on travelling and opening up new markets.

I started forex trading six years ago. Because I trade with leverage, my goal is to double my two accounts every year. The game plan is to achieve 6 per cent monthly returns and compound them every month. That will give me 100 per cent returns annually.

I have made a six-figure sum from forex trading in the past five years. I start small, with $5,000, and roll over the profits, which I withdraw about once a year.

Leverage will amplify your gains but it may not amplify your loss. The key thing is to be consistently profitable. You should not risk too much of your account. Look at it from a year’s perspective.

Q: Moneywise, what were your growing-up years like?
I am a middle child. My brother Mark is a year older and sister Maria is five years younger. My mum and dad were teachers. They worked hard and instilled solid values in all of us. My parents taught us the value of money since we were young – that we had to earn money to buy what we wanted.

During the He-Man craze when I was eight, I literally begged my parents to buy me a figurine each time a new one came out. I did not get one most of the time.

I must have an entrepreneurial streak in me, because I started renting out my comic books to my classmates in Secondary 1 for 50 cents a day. That gave me a passive income of $10 a month.

My dad died when I was 16 and my mum took it upon herself to see us through university. It certainly was not easy and I am forever grateful to her for that.

Q: How did you get interested in investing?
I did a bit of contra trading in my university days and that opened my mind to trading and investing.
I was part of a small group who found it difficult to focus during lectures. Hence, we would huddle and discuss our ‘hot picks’ during those times.

My first lesson came when I started a forex trading account with US$3,000 several years back and went short on British pound/US dollar. Each time the price went up, I clicked ‘sell’, hoping to catch the reversal. I burned the account in six days.

I realised it was because I did not have a proper knowledge of the markets. Forex is linked to everything. Since I was not trained in economics or finance, I knew I had to get good mentors to coach me. I wrote to Mr Ed Ponsi and Ms Kathy Lien, the biggest names in the forex trading arena. I found out they were coming to Singapore for a talk, so I went for it and asked them to be my mentors, and they agreed.

These people, who are good at what they do, they do not mind teaching others. I am also inspired by Dr Alexander Elder, who wrote Trading For A Living and Come Into My Trading Room.

WORST AND BEST BETS
Q: What is your worst investment to date?
This happened three years ago when I invested $30,000 to buy two plots of land in Britain that were marketed by Land Wealth Centre.
My friend was an agent and recommended it so I decided to support him. I also wanted to diversify my portfolio and own some land.

I was receiving regular quarterly payouts of $150 for a year when it suddenly stopped. I made a trip to the Tanjong Pagar office after getting no reply on the phone.
I realised it was a goner when I saw that it was totally cleared out. My friend, the agent, told me the company was going through some problems with the British authorities. It wasn’t long before the company folded.


Q: What is your best investment to date?
My company FX1 Academy has pulled in a net profit of over $1 million within the first two years of starting operations, just from the training division alone.
And last year, I invested $200,000 in a consortium which owns 1,500 sq km of land in Papua New Guinea that is earmarked for a large-scale oil palm plantation.
The entity will list on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in less than three months and I am expecting a return of at least five times my capital.

Q: What property do you own?
In 2006, I bought a flat in Singapore’s first Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) project, The Premiere@Tampines, for $371,000. The 1,200 sq ft five-room flat is now worth almost $700,000.

Q: What’s the most extravagant thing you have bought?
It would be a princess-cut diamond ring for my wife Shalyn. It cost almost $8,000. I have no regrets as the smile she wears with it is worth a million dollars.

Q: What’s your retirement plan?
I have found my flow in the forex world and plans are on track for me to be financially independent by 40. As a family, we now need about $12,000 a month.
I do not know if I will retire, although the thought of sipping pina coladas on a beach sounds nice. I love what I do. Meeting new people every day and touching lives through forex trading drives me.

Q: Home is now…
My DBSS flat at The Premiere@Tampines.

Q: I drive…
A black BMW 5.23i.

(Source: MarioSingh.com)

Monday 12 March 2012

US Dollar on the Rise! (Bloomberg.com)

Hey everybody!
Hope you all had a great weekend and a great Labour Day.

Over the weekend the United States experienced an increase in retail sales. Good for the US, but unfavorable for the AUD and NZD. Hans Kunnen of St. George Bank Ltd. states that what happened in the US is definitely something above expectation but what is favorable for the US, has caused a decline for the Australian Dollar (Ishikawa, 2012).

Over the weekend, Australia’s dollar fell 0.3% to $1.0545 as of 11:21 a.m. in Sydney from $1.0576 on March 9, when it declined 0.6%. The Aussie fell 0.4% to 86.89 yen from 87.21.
New Zealand’s dollar dropped 0.4% to 81.78 U.S. cents, and 0.5% to 67.40 yen (Ishikawa, 2012). 
On other reports, the British Pound declined as unemployment declines in the US. Reports state that US employers are adding more jobs than was forecasted last month (Goodman, 2012). 
Amongst all these, the USD reached a 10-month high against the Yen as better-than-forecast payrolls damped Federal Reserve monetary stimulus speculation (Bennett, 2012).
To read the full reports, go to:

Friday 9 March 2012

Euro Strengthens! (Bloomberg March 8th 2012)

March 8th 2012, Keith Jenkins & Monami Yui, Bloomberg.com

According to Bloomberg, the Euro strengthened and was at its highest in two weeks due to the speculation that Greece might attract more investors to make its debt-swap plan a success (Jenkins & Yui, 2012).

Due to low interest rates by the ECB (European Central Banks) and the Bank of England, the Euro stayed stronger against the Dollar and the Yen (Jenkins & Yui, 2012).

The last time a similar situation happened was on February 9th when the last ECB meeting was held and surveys showed some "stabilization in the region". At that time the Euro appreciate 0.2% against the Dollar and 1% against the Yen (Jenkins & Yui, 2012).

According to Karen Jones (cited in Jenkins & Yui), head of fixed-income, commodity and currency technical analysis at the bank in London, the Euro-yen has rebounded back from a six week uptrend at 105.85 (2012). She also states that “the market will find resistance at 108 and will need to regain 108.75 to retarget the 55-week moving average at 109.38 and the July low at 109.58 (Jenkins & Yui, 2012)”.


Apart from that, Commerzbank AG, the second largest bank in Germany, states that the Euro may rise up to 109.58 Yen, citing from trading patterns (Jenkins & Yui, 2012).


To read the full article, click here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-08/yen-weakens-after-data-shows-japan-posted-record-current-account-deficit.html

Wednesday 7 March 2012

China Set To Wean Itself Off Exports by Mario Singh

March 6th 2012 by Mario Singh

In the strongest signal yet to reduce reliance in exports and capital spending in favour of consumption, China’s Premier Wen Jiabao set the pace for this year’s growth at 7.5%.
The announcement was made yesterday during the state-of-the-nation speech delivered to 3,000 lawmakers at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress in Beijing.
Since 2004, China has aimed for 8% growth for the last eight years straight. As a recap, GDP growth for 2010 came in at 10.4% while 2011 recorded a growth of 9.2%. While still ahead of the 8% benchmark, the numbers have been steadily dropping the last couple of years.
Inflation figures were also higher than expected last year, recording a figure of 5.4% against a benchmark 4% target. This year, the inflation goal will remain unchanged at 4%.
After Premier Wen’s announcement, the Yuan weakened, sending the USD/RMB exchange rate to 6.3043, its strongest level in four weeks.
Let’s take a quick snapshot on how China has managed its monetary policy recently.
From October 2010 to July 2011, China hiked interest rates five times to contain runaway inflation. However, in a change of course, the government lowered the banks’ reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points on 30th Nov 2011, the first such cut since 2008. It then followed up with another lowering last month, bringing the reserve requirement ratio to 20.5%.
This reveals China’s intention to inject liquidity and increase the flow of money into the economy to boost lending and sustain growth – amidst a backdrop of slowing exports to Europe.
What are the immediate impacts of China’s slowing growth?
For one, expect Australia’s growth to slow. China imports a hefty amount of raw materials from Australia, and if China slows, Australia is bound to feel the effect.
In fact, the tell-tale signs are already present:
1. A Citigroup Inc. gauge of Australia’s terms of trade for commodities, which measures the price of exports relative to imports, fell 4.6% last month and reached an 18th month low on 1st March 2012.
2. Rio Tinto, the world’s third-largest mining company, may shut its smelter in Australia because of rising costs and declines in prices for the metal.

Top News This Week

1. Australia GDP m/m. Wednesday, 7th March, 8.30am. I expect figures to come in at 0.7% (previous figure was 1%).
2. USA Non-Farm Payroll. Friday, 9th March, 9.30pm. I expect figures to come in below 200K (previous figure was 243K).

Trade Call

Short USD/CHF at 0.9080
On the H4 chart, USD/CHF has been on a steady downtrend, clearing over 640 pips in 6 weeks. Price action looks to be respecting the downtrend line, hence, the bias is for us to go short.
We will place a sell order once prices touch 0.9080. A stop loss of 75 pips is placed above the downtrend line.
We will have 2 targets on this trade, exiting the final position at 0.8940.
Entry Price = 0.9080
Stop Loss = 0.9150
1st Profit = 0.9010
2nd Profit = 0.8940