Friday 27 April 2012

CAD at a 7-Month High (Bloomberg.com, April 27th 2012)

April 27th 2012. Chris Fournier, Lucy Meakin, Monami Yui & Kristine Aquino, Bloomberg.com

Today the Canadian Dollar reaches a 7-month high at 98.07 cents against the dollar, the highest since September (Fournier, 2012).

Futures markets are “starting to price in the probability of a Bank of Canada rate hike by the fall, and that’s really driving the Canadian dollar’s strength,” said Shane Enrightexecutive director at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce’s CIBC World Markets unit in Toronto (Fournier, 2012). 


Also the British Pound (GBP) climbs 0.2% against the Euro and USD at 81.65pence per euro and $1.6188 consequtively (Meakin, 2012).

Besides that, the Yen dropped against 14 of its 16 major peers on speculation that the Bank of Japan will expand stimulus measures to combat deflation today (Yui & Aquino, 2012). The Yen fell 0.2% against the dollar at 81.13 yesterday.

To read full articles, go here:
Fournier, C 2012, Bloomberg.com
Meakin, L 2012, Bloomberg.com
Yui, M & Aquino, K 2012, Bloomberg.com

Wednesday 18 April 2012

Top Ten Forex Trading Questions Answered by Mario Singh


Mario Singh (FXPRIMUS Director of Education & Training addresses the hottest investment questions for the First Quarter in Asia) answers the Top Ten Forex Trading questions of the 1st 2012 quarter. 
Ebène Mauritius, Thursday, 5 April 2012 – For the first quarter of 2012,leading global foreign exchange trader, educator and author Mario Sant Singh, cited gold prices, risk currencies, interest rates, and news-driven market change in calculations on risk, and addressed trading concerns for beginners in hisAskMarioSingh.com blog, “Your toughest Forex Questions answered daily”.
While the views of Mario Sant Singh – who is Director or Training & Education at FXPRIMUS, are already widely sought after in the Forex industry, his popular blog provides a direct channel for both new and experienced traders to improve their knowledge of underlying trends, market movements and news-driven events in the Forex and related, investment markets.
Said Ellen Vaanholt, VP of Marketing at FXPRIMUS, “Ask Mario your toughest Forex questions on AskMarioSingh.com to get practical answers. Many traders – both beginners and professionals – have similar concerns, and Mario’s online blog provides one of the best-informed educational resources available anywhere, to access market-leading expertise and information for Forex trading, on a continuously-updated basis.”
In the first quarter of 2012, the top ten Forex trading questions (click the links for the answers) were:
Have a new question for Mario? Then ask him online at AskMarioSingh.com, and sign up to receive Mario’s Forex Answer of the Day, by email.

ABOUT MARIO SANT SINGH

Mario Singh is the Director of Trading & Education at global retail Forex brokerage FXPRIMUS. He has appeared as a guest expert on CNBC more than 35 times to talk about foreign exchange markets, and is a regular contributor to top investment publications and online portals. Known as a brilliant and intense communicator with a unique ability to ‘keep Forex simple’ and a mission to help every man-in-the-street to trade profitably and responsibly in the Forex market, more than 20,000 people have attended his Forex trading programs. He is the only Forex trader in Asia invited to train Julius Baer Private Bankers – the third largest Swiss Bank, and is the author of the forthcoming book: How to Profit in the Forex Market: 17 Proven Strategies (Wiley Publishing).

ABOUT FXPRIMUS

FXPRIMUS, The Safest Place To Trade , offers retail traders a level of trade execution, service quality and fund safety that are normally reserved only for the largest investors. Serving traders in 205 countries across 6 continents, FXPRIMUSprovides an unmatched level of fund safety combined with Straight Through Processing, top notch execution with tight spreads, prompt and responsive customer support, and an industry-leading trader toolset that includes free access to powerful trading tools and personal coaching via FXPRIMUS Coach.
(Source: MarioSingh.com)

China Pre-Empts Call to Beef Up Yuan (Mario Singh, April 17th 2012)


What a difference 2 weeks make.
Two weeks ago, China reported stellar numbers in its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), with numbers coming in at a one-year high of 53.1 in March, compared to a reading of 51 in February.
As the world’s largest exporter, the PMI is an important number for traders to gauge the strength of the Chinese economy.
However, on Friday the 13th just four days back, the horror of a slowing economy came crashing back down to earth. China’s GDP figures had come in at 8.1%, a reading worse than economists’ estimates of 8.4%. The previous figure was 8.9%.
Despite the dismal figures, China announced a surprise doubling of the Yuan trading band over the weekend. Since May 2007, The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) had kept the daily trading band at 0.5%. This means that the Yuan was able to move 0.5% on either side of the daily fixed rate.
With the announcement, the PBOC now allows a 1% move on either side of the daily fixed rate.
There are essentially three reasons for the PBOC move:
1) It helps to control inflation
2) It helps to stimulate stronger domestic demand
3) It helps the export sector to deal with any possible appreciation of the Yuan
There are two other strategic purposes of the move, although China may not officially say it. The first deals with the upcoming meeting among the IMF, World Bank and G20 finance chiefs in Washington at the end of this week.
In my opinion, the move to widen the trading band was strategically done before the meeting to placate calls for China to strengthen its currency even further.
The second reason is that it helps to move China closer towards its intended goal of having a convertible currency soon in the near future. As it is, China’s regulators raised quotas for foreigners buying onshore stocks and bonds to USD80 billion from USD30 billion this month, as part of its qualified foreign institutional investor scheme (QFII).

Top News This Week

Europe: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Thursday, 17th April, 5pm. I expect figures to come in below 21 (previous figure was 22.3).
New Zealand: CPI q/q. Thursday, 19th April, 6.45am. I expect figures to come in at 0.5% (previous figure was -0.3%).

Trade Call

Short USD/SGD at 1.2520
Late last week, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) announced solid first quarter GDP results for 2012.
GDP was 1.6% higher than the corresponding period last year. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP actually grew 9.9%, reversing the 2.5% contraction in the preceding three months.
The MAS also expects the “inflation gauge” or the Consumer Price Index, to come in between 3.5% to 4.5% this year, up by one percentage point.
To alleviate the inflationary pressure, the MAS is expected to tighten monetary policy and allow the Sing dollar to appreciate faster.
On the Hourly chart, USD/SGD is moving in a 97-pip range, with Resistance located at 1.2544 and Support located at 1.2447. With the move by MAS, our bias for USD/SGD is to the downside.
We will go short once prices fall to 1.2520. A stop loss of 50 pips is located above the Resistance level at 1.2570.
We will have two targets on this trade, exiting the final position at 1.2420.
Entry Price = 1.2520
Stop Loss = 1.2570
1st Profit = 1.2470
2nd Profit = 1.2420
(Source: MarioSingh.com)

Friday 13 April 2012

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Aussie Dollar Remains Low, Unemployment Increases in the US (Bloomberg.com, April 13th 2012)

April 13th 2012, Timothy R. Homan, Alex Kowalski, Monami Yui, Masaki Kondo, Mariko Ishikawa & Allison Bennett, Bloomberg.com

Throughout the week, we have seen the AUD fall to as low as US$1.023, however rose to US$1.045 today as the week closed as seen below from XE.com.
(Source: XE.com, April 13th 2012)

Despite the rise, at 1.045 the AUD against the USD is low compared to when it once was just a month ago where it was 1.0623 (XE.com, 2012).

According to Mariko Ishikawa from Bloomberg, the drop is due to slow growth in China economy more than economists forecast as well as the Reserve Bank bringing down interest rates to "prop up the economy" (2012).

In the US 380,000 unemployment claims came in this week totally almost 30,000 more than economist had expected (Homan & Kowalski, 2012). This should cause concern among the Federal Reserve policy makers that bringing the economy back up may take more effort and time than planned (Homan & Kowalski, 2012).

This of course will be manifested in the drop of the Dollar despite a upwards trend the past week.

(Source, XE.com, April 13th 2012)

To read the full articles, go here:
Homan, TR & Kowalski, A 2012, Bloomberg.com
Yui, M & Kondo, M 2012,Bloomberg.com
Ishikawa, M 2012, Bloomberg.com
Bennett, A 2012, Bloomberg.com

Wednesday 11 April 2012

Aussie Dollar Falls to a 3-Month Low (Bloomberg.com)

April 11th 2012, Mariko Ishikawa, Monami Yui & Masaki Kondo & Chris Fournier, Bloomberg.com

The AUD fell to a 3-month low at $1.0226, the lowest since January 7th and 82.49 against the Yen, weakest since February 7th (Ishikawa, 2012).

“Crimping risk appetite is weighing on risk-sensitive currencies like the kiwi and the Aussie,” said Mike Jones, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. “There’s more attention than usual on European bond auctions, given debt jitters are starting to flare up again” (Ishikawa, 2012). 


The AUD fell to a 3-month low at $1.0226, the lowest since January 7th and 82.49 against the Yen, weakest since February 7th (Ishikawa, 2012). A private report showed that the AUD remained lower showed consumer-confidence fell to a 8-month low.

The Yen however nears a 7-week high against the Euro and the European debt crisis worsens, weakening demand for riskier assets (Yui & Kondo, 2012).

“The euro is so vulnerable it will drag the yen higher,” said Kurt Magnus, executive director of foreign-exchange sales in Sydney at Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage. The yen’s strength is “the sign of risk-off mentality" (Yui & Kondo, 2012). 


The CAD also falls to a 6-month low against the USD and the European crisis worsens. It depreciated 0.7%  at $1.0045 per US Dollar when since mid February has been from 98.42 cents to $1.0052 (Fournier, 2012).

To read the full articles, go here:
1) Ishikawa, M 2012, Bloomberg.com
2) Yui, M & Kondo, M 2012, Bloomberg.com
3) Fournier, C 2012, Bloomberg.com

Tuesday 10 April 2012

US Jobs Figure a Damp Squib (Mario Singh April 10th 2012)


All the excitement in the previous week came to a screeching halt when the US Labour Department released the hotly watched Non Farm Payrolls figures on Friday evening.
The 120,000 jobs added in March were the lowest in five months, underscoring Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s concern that recent gains may not be sustained without a pickup in growth.
The figure was all the more soberising considering that the average economist forecast in a Bloomberg survey was 205,000.
The silver lining in the gloomy numbers was the unemployment figures. This came in at 8.2%, down from 8.3% the month prior. The figure was the lowest since January 2009.
However, as I wrote in a previous article, the drop in the unemployment figure does not necessarily mean that more people in the nation are employed. This is because it masks the fact that some job-seekers simply give up hope in finding a job, and drop out altogether.
Upon the news release, the USD/JPY plunged 125 pips in an hour – from a high of 82.55 to a low of 81.30.
Europe’s on-going debt concerns and renewed worries over the US recovery have seen investors plow into US Treasuries at a record pace. This is because US Treasuries are widely seen as the world’s safest assets.
Since the start of 2012, buyers have bid $3.19 for each dollar of the $538 billion in notes and bonds sold this year. This is the highest figure ever recorded and it is on track to beat the high of $3.04 recorded last year.
Interestingly, the ever-increasing demand for US debt will keep yields low even if the Fed refrains from QE3. This will ultimately help President Obama to finance a fourth deficit exceeding USD1 trillion at low costs.
Elsewhere in Japan, the official figure of 1.18 trillion Yen for February showed that Japan has returned to a current account surplus. This was after a record deficit in January.
The figures caused USD/JPY to fall even further, as the figures from Japan boosted the allure of the Yen as an investment haven.

Top News This Week

Australia Employment Change, Thursday, 12th April, 9.30am. I expect figures to come in below 7K, (previous figure was -15.4K).
China quarterly GDP, Friday, 13th April, 10am. I expect figures to come in at 8.4% (previous figure was 8.9%).

Trade Call

Long EUR/CHF at 1.2030
On 6th September 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) stunned the world by intervening in the Forex Market to weaken the Swiss Franc. They spent 11 billion Francs to buy Euros for the first time in more than three decades.
This caused the EUR/CHF to shoot up 1,150 pips in 3 hours.
In a specific statement, the Zurich-based bank said that it “will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF rate below 1.20 and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.”
At the close of the markets over the weekend, EUR/CHF actually dipped 2 pips below the self-imposed floor set by the SNB. The bias is for us to go long in anticipation of another impending intervention by the SNB.
We will go long once EUR/CHF rises to 1.2030. A stop loss is set 50 pips below the entry price. We will have 2 targets on this trade.
Entry Price = 1.2030
Stop Loss = 1.1980
1st Profit = 1.2080
2nd Profit = 1.2130
(Source: MarioSingh.com)

Yen Remains Strong Against Euro (Bloomberg.com April 10th 2012)

April 10th 2012, Masaki Kondo, Monami Yui, John Detrixhe, & Catarina Saraiva, Bloomberg.com

The JPY remains strong today at 0.8% against the Euro as it viewed as a safety net for many investors (Kondo & Yui, 2012).

In the US, employers could not add as many jobs as researchers had hoped and that caused a slight fall in the USD at 0.1% against the Euro and 0.2% against the Yen (Saraiva, 2012).

Also, the Canadian Dollar strengthened against the Yen today after a month. Earlier this month, the CAD experienced falls as the employment and retail increased in the US (Detrixhe, 2012).

To read the full articles, go here:
1) Kondo, M & Yui, M 2012, Bloomberg.com
2) Detrixhe, J 2012, Bloomberg.com
3) Saraiva, C 2012 Bloomberg.com

Monday 9 April 2012

Yen Gains, Euro Falls (Bloomberg.com April 9th 2012)

April 9th 2012, Masaki Kondo & Monami Yui, Bloomberg.com

Happy Easter Weekend everybody! Hope you all had a great time with family and friends.

In today's currency news, the Yen rose against most of its peers including against the Euro as it hits a one-month low according to a German reports that showed declines in exports (Kondo & Yui 2012). The JPY climbed to 106.18 per Euro, the strongest it has been since March and ending at 106.46, rising 0.4% (Kondo & Yui, 2012). Against the USD, the JPY rose 0.2% while the EUR/USD fell 0.3%.

“The markets will likely remain risk-aversive, and the yen may continue to be bought as a haven,” said Toshiya Yamauchi, a senior analyst in Tokyo at Ueda Harlow Ltd., which provides currency margin-trading services. “People are focused on downside risks to the European economy, and the situation is unlikely to turn around” (Kondo & Yui, 2012). 


To read the full article, go here: 
Kondo, M & Yui, M 2012, Bloomberg.com

Thursday 5 April 2012

Euro & CAD Falls as Pound Gains (Bloomberg.com April 5th 2012)

April 5th 2012, Monami Yui, Kristine Aquino, Chris Fournier, Cecile Gutscher & Lucy Meakin, Bloomberg.com

The Euro traded low against the Yen and Dollar as the European debt crisis still keeps the region's economy in the dark. This was a 3-week low against the Dollar as a speculation report today showed German industrial production fell in February, supporting the European Central Bank to keep its interests low (Yui & Aquino, 2012).

“Most of Europe is going through a contraction,” said Andrew Salter, a foreign-exchange strategist in Sydney at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) “If the peripheral governments cannot make the necessary reforms, in the long term that’s a negative for the euro” (Yui & Aquino, 2012).

In other news, the Canadian Dollar fell against the US Dollar, reflecting Canada's slow employment growth rate (Fournier & Gutscher, 2012). Last month Canadian employers added 10,500 new jobs, or 10,000 in the first quarter compared to first quarter of 2011 where it was 75,000 (Fournier & Gutscher, 2012).

Also the Great Britain Pound gains to a 2-month high against the Euro and 16 of its counterparts as unexpected growth in services and increase in house prices (Meakin, 2012). It gained 0.5% to 82.73 pence per Euro after appreciating to 82.62, the strongest since Jan. 16. Against the Dollar it fell 0.3% to $1.5874 (Meakin, 2012).

“The pound is performing well,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in London. “Services continue to outperform, house-price data blew the doors off” (Meakin, 2012). 


To read the full articles, go here: 
1) Yui, M & Aquino, K, 2012 Bloomberg.com
2) Fournier, C & Gutscher, C, 2012, Bloomberg.com
3) Meakin, L 2012, Bloomberg.com

Wednesday 4 April 2012

VXS: Mario Singh at InvestFair 2012, Singapore


Leading Market Expert Mario Sant Singh to Conduct Free Seminars in Singapore at InvestFair 2012 on How to Profit in the Forex Market

(Daily InvestFair 2012 education sessions will also offer access to free video training and SMS trade alerts for experienced and new traders)
Ebène Mauritius, Monday, 2 April 2012 — Leading global foreign exchange trader, educator and author Mario Sant Singh, who is also Director of Training & Education at FXPRIMUS and whose views are widely sought after in the Forex industry, will conduct a series of free seminars at the upcoming InvestFair 2012 event in Singapore on April 7/8, to teach retail investors how to profit in the forex market.
At the event, he will lead daily education sessions that also offer access to free video training resources and SMS trade signals that teach how and when to trade forex, even if you’ve never traded before.
According to Ellen Vaanholt, VP of Marketing at FXPRIMUS, “The idea is to register with your name, email and mobile number and we’ll send you free access to training videos if you’re new to forex trading, plus 30 days free SMS trade alerts which show you exactly where to enter each trade, where to set stops and where to set profit levels.”. Ms Vaanholt also said, “Profit from Mario’s trade alerts from 1 Jan – 15 Mar 2012 is USD11,230 (1,123 pips) so registrants have the opportunity to benefit from 30 days free access to these trade signals.”
“As part of the promotion, all registrants also stand a chance to win a Team FXPRIMUS Race Experience for two,” she added. Attendees are invited to register for the free seminars and SMS trade alerts by visiting FXPRIMUS at Booth C18 during InvestFair.
During live seminar appearances, Mario Sant Singh will cover topics including FX Waves: Profit Opportunities that Exist in the Forex Market Right Now, How Forex Knowledge Helps Traders Profit in Other Markets, The #1 Mistake Most Traders Make and How to Avoid It Every Time. He will address The Top 7 Challenges Traders Face and How to Overcome Them, and identify the 3 Keys to Successful Trading and How to Use Them for Maximum Returns.
Mario Singh is the Director of Trading & Education at global retail forex brokerage FXPRIMUS. He has appeared as a guest expert on CNBC more than 35 times to talk about foreign exchange markets, and is a regular contributor to top investment publications and online portals.
Known as a brilliant and intense communicator with a unique ability to ‘keep Forex simple’ and a mission to help every man-in-the-street to trade profitably and responsibly in the Forex market, more than 20,000 people have attended his Forex trading programs. He is the only Forex trader in Asia invited to train Julius Baer Private Bankers – the third largest Swiss Bank, and is the author of the forthcoming book: How to Profit in the Forex Market: 17 Proven Strategies (Wiley Publishing).
FXPRIMUS, The Safest Place To Trade offers retail traders a level of trade execution, service quality and fund safety that are normally reserved only for the largest investors. The brokerage is a gold sponsor of the free-admission InvestFair 2012 event in Singapore.
Jointly organised by ShareInvestor and the Business Times Singapore, the annual InvestFair event for traders and investors is being held at the SUNTEC Convention and Exhibition Centre in Singapore, with a focus on enhancing investor education.

ABOUT FXPRIMUS

Serving traders in 205 countries across 6 continents, FXPRIMUS provides an unmatched level of fund safety combined with Straight Through Processing, top notch execution with tight spreads, prompt and responsive customer support, and an industry-leading trader toolset that includes free access to powerful trading tools and personal coaching via FXPRIMUS Coach. FXPRIMUS is truly The Safest Place To Trade.